Stop bidding where everyone bids: how to find underpriced audiences
Sheffield Wednesday rejected Jamie Vardy at 15 for being too small. At 29, he won the Premier League.
In between: £30 a week at non-league Stocksbridge Park Steels, a factory job making carbon-fibre medical splints, then Halifax, then Fleetwood, where he scored 31 goals in 36 games. Leicester paid £1 million for him in 2012. In 2015-16 he scored 24 league goals and was named Premier League Player of the Season.
Every big club scouted the same academies. Almost nobody scouted the factory shift.
Marketing does the same thing
Everyone bids on the same audiences, on the same three platforms, and pays for the privilege. When every competitor targets the same lookalikes and the same interests, the auction prices them up. You are paying academy prices.
The cheap talent sits in the league nobody is watching.
Where the factory floors usually are
- Smaller or newer ad platforms where fewer advertisers bid.
- Geos your competitors ignore, where the same user value costs less.
- Broad targeting with strong creative, instead of the narrow interests everyone picks.
- Off-peak placements and formats that big spenders skip.
- Communities and creators in niches that do not show up in platform targeting.
Cheap is not the goal on its own. A cheap user who leaves in a week is still expensive. The goal is users who are underpriced for what they are worth.
The move
- Price the player, not the league. Judge every new source on predicted LTV against CAC, not on CPI or CPM.
- Test small. Give a new source a capped budget and a written rule for when it gets more or gets cut. See when to pause a UA campaign.
- Read the cohort at day 30, not day 3. Cheap sources often look great early and fade.
- Keep a scouting budget, a fixed share of spend reserved for sources nobody else is using.
Bottom line
Stop bidding where everyone bids. Scout the factory floor. Price the player, not the league.
FAQ
How do I lower my CPI or CAC?
Look outside the most crowded auctions: smaller platforms, overlooked geos, broader targeting with strong creative and niche communities. Then judge each source on lifetime value against cost, not on cost alone.
Are cheaper users worse users?
Sometimes. Some cheap sources bring users who leave quickly. Others are cheap only because fewer advertisers compete there. Read retention and revenue at day 30 before deciding.
How much budget should go to testing new channels?
Keep a fixed, capped share of spend for scouting new sources, with written rules for when a source earns more budget or gets cut.
Why are my Meta and Google costs rising?
Often because more advertisers are bidding on the same audiences. When everyone targets the same users, the auction raises the price for all of them.